Bob Rennie speaks with The Pacific Club

I attended Bob Rennie's talk Wednesday evening with The Pacific Club, hosted by the The Vancouver Club at 915 W Hastings. Bob Rennie spoke about his life's trail to success and his outlook on the Vancouver Real Estate Market. He made very insightful points as to the importance of Hard Assets in light of foreseeable rapid depreciation of global currencies due to irresponsible cash printing and spending. He predicts Hard Assets such as art, precious metals and jewels, and real estate will continue to appreciate. Bob continued on how strong our fundamentals are.

Vancouver has the #1 Banking system in the World relative to the USA, #40; demand and immigration outlook is very strong; mortgage rates are extremely low 3.49 % vs 5.5% a year ago; Vancouver also has a limited supply, as new housing starts have decreased. For the sixth consecutive month, new listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined in Greater Vancouver, down 33.7 % to 4,649 in April 2009 compared to April 2008, when 7,010 new units were listed.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that Residential Property sales in Greater Vancouver were 2,963 in April 2009, an increase of 31 % compared March 2009. Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,963 in April 2009, an increase of 31 % compared to March 2009. Sales of detached properties totaled 1,190, the average price is $675,268. Sales of Apartment Properties in April 2009 1,179 with an average price of $431,759. Attached property sales in April 2009 totalled 594, with an average price of $431,759.

Detached Vancouver West up 59.5 %, Attached Vancouver West up 46.3%, and North Vancouver Apartments up 29.2 %.

Bob concluded that the only fundamental the Vancouver Housing Market lacks is the Confidence Factor. Bob stated that he senses an emergence with positive action such as the recent $90 million sale of The Grovesnor Building, and announced May 21st would be his major return to our local marketing media. Dr Rennie predicted a 6-12 month period for savvy buyers to enter the market at fantastic prices for premium properties at very low interest rates.

With any questions or concerns I invite you to contact me at any time.

Best Regards,

Stu Bell

Prudential Sussex Realty
Call 604-562-0632
Fax 604-925-3002
Write stu@stubell.com

April Stats

Buyer activity brings greater stability to the housing market

VANCOUVER, B.C. – May 4, 2009 – With more buyers and fewer homes for sale in recent months, the Greater Vancouver housing market has entered a more moderate and balanced state.

For the sixth consecutive month, new listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined in Greater Vancouver, down 33.7 per cent to 4,649 in April 2009 compared to April 2008, when 7,010 new units were listed. The total number of property listings on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), while slightly down compared to last month, remains unchanged compared to the same period in 2008.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,963 in April 2009, a decline of eight per cent from the 3,218 sales recorded in April 2008, and an increase of 31 per cent compared to last month.

“We’re seeing greater balance in the housing market, as evidenced by a strong sales to active listings ratio of over 19 per cent,” Scott Russell, REBGV president said. “The result is a relatively stable market in which homes are being realistically priced.

“The bridge between buyer demand and housing supply is continuing to narrow, which, as we see, helps bring stability to home prices,” he said. “The trends in our housing market over the last couple of months offer a much more comfortable, historically normal set of conditions.”

Sales of detached properties declined eight per cent to 1,190 from the 1,293 detached sales recorded during the same period in 2008. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties declined 12.2 per cent from April 2008 to $675,268.

Sales of apartment properties in April 2009 declined 10.5 per cent to 1,179, compared to 1,317 sales in April 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 12.6 per cent from April 2008 to $340,203.

Attached property sales in April 2009 are down 2.3 per cent to 594, compared with the 608 sales in April 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit decreased 9.7 per cent between April 2008 and 2009 to $431,759.


Bright spots in Greater Vancouver in April 2009 compared to April 2008:

Detached:

Vancouver West up 59.5 per cent (193 units sold from 121)

Attached:

Port Coquitlam up 69.6 per cent (39 units sold from 23)

Richmond up 17.9 per cent (132 units sold from 112)

Vancouver West up 46.3 per cent (98 units sold from 67)

Apartments:

North Vancouver up 29.2 per cent (84 units sold from 65)

Promising Market Signals in Arizona

I am spending my last month in Phoenix and today the front page of The Arizona Republic read "Promising Signs from Valley Housing Date." Arizona, alongside California, and Las Vegas have had the worst foreclosure rates in the nation, largely due to gross overbuilding and urban sprawl in a metropolis with plenty of land to build on, but not enough jobs or permanent residents to occupy them. The result, disequilibrium, desperate developers, and sub-prime crisis bank foreclosures. Now new four bedroom homes can be bought for less than $100K. Signals in March show home sales soared to levels not seen since 2005, foreclosures fell for the first time in a year and prices showed signs of leveling off. 70-90% increases from a year ago ago and record sales in several Valley Cities, including Phoenix. I really hope this momentum continues and real estate becomes a hot topic like it was in 2004-2007 as the Olympics and global media visit Vancouver.

To read the entire story, visit the following link: http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2009/04/04/20090404housing0404.html

Positive Indicators from US Real Estate Market

Real Estate Outlook: Where Housing is Headed
by Kenneth R. Harney

We received an important indicator of where housing is headed last week, when new mortgage applications for home purchases and refinances suddenly surged as they hadn't in months.

Applications for FHA loans to buy houses were up by 10.4 percent. And overall home purchase applications jumped by 7.1 percent.

Meanwhile mortgage interest rates dropped to their second lowest level in nearly two decades, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Thirty year fixed rates averaged 4.96 percent and fifteen year rated dropped to just 4.5 percent.

Why's this important? New financing applications to buy homes obviously point to rising purchase contracts and closed sales in the months ahead. They also suggest that prices have hit a level in many markets that is attracting once-hesitant buyers off the sidelines.

There's still another factor that's likely at work here as well: Congress's recent improvements to the home purchase tax credit -- pushing it to $8,000 from $7,500 and making it non-repayable. George Ratiu, research economist for the National Association of Realtors, says the big jump in loan applications could be tied to the improved credit in the stimulus package signed into law last month.

"Consumers may be responding to the stimulation" effect of the better credit for 2009, he said.

But let's be clear here: A rise in home purchase applications does NOT suggest we've turned the corner in the cycle or have solved the multiple challenges facing markets around the country -- high foreclosure levels, continuing domination in some areas of REO and short sales, and continuing increases in the unemployment rate.

Even amid these problems, however, there are some hints of possible improvements ahead. For example, a new study by research firm Realty Trac and USA Today found that despite the constant headlines about record levels of foreclosures, the more closely you look, the more you find that those numbers are highly concentrated in a relatively small number of counties.

More than half of the nation's foreclosures in 2008, researchers found, were concentrated in just 35 counties in 12 states. You can guess where: California, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Florida.

But the really eye-opening finding: In more than 650 other counties, representing one fifth of all markets in the U.S., foreclosure numbers have actually declined since 2006.

Foreclosures are horrible no matter where they occur. But the fact is: Huge portions of the United States have NOT been seeing record foreclosures, short sales or even serious property value declines. They're doing better.

Published: March 17, 2009

February Real Estate Sales Stats

Property listings decrease, as February sales improve.

VANCOUVER, B.C. – March 3, 2008 – Residential housing sales in Greater Vancouver rose 94 per cent in February compared to the month before, with 1,480 sales registered in February compared to 762 sales in January, which was the slowest month for housing sales in 25 years. Over the past 10 years, February sales have typically surpassed January by an average increase of 53 per cent.

At the same time, new MLS® listings for residential properties continued to decrease for the fourth month in a row. New listings decreased 25.6 per cent in February compared to the previous year; 20 per cent in January; 8.6 per cent in December; and 10 per cent in November.

“There are terrific opportunities out there right now, but with property listings continuing to decrease, those opportunities may be available only for a brief window of time,” said Dave Watt, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).

REBGV reports that year-over-year property sales in Greater Vancouver declined 44.7 per cent in February 2009 from the 2,676 sales recorded in February 2008. Year-over-year, those are the lowest sales figures for February since the mid-1980s.

“REALTORS® are reporting more activity compared to recent months as people begin to see whether their position in the housing market has strengthened as a result of falling interest rates and improved affordability,” Watt says. “It took, on average, 67 days to sell a home in Greater Vancouver in February, seven days less than last month, but behind the seller’s market of last February when the average stood at 33 days.

Sales of detached properties in February 2009 declined 41 per cent to 587 from the 995 units sold during the same period in 2008. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties declined 14.2 per cent from February 2008 to $653,452.

Sales of apartment properties declined 45.6 per cent last month to 650, compared to the 1,197 sales in February 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 13.9 per cent from February 2008 to $333,143.

Attached property sales in February 2009 decreased 49.8 per cent to 243, compared with the 484 sales during the same month in 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit declined 9.7 per cent between Februarys 2008 and 2009 to $426,268.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 25.6 per cent to 3,916 in February 2009 compared to February 2008, when 5,260 new units were listed.