Real Estate Outlook: Where Housing is Headed
by Kenneth R. Harney
We received an important indicator of where housing is headed last week, when new mortgage applications for home purchases and refinances suddenly surged as they hadn't in months.
Applications for FHA loans to buy houses were up by 10.4 percent. And overall home purchase applications jumped by 7.1 percent.
Meanwhile mortgage interest rates dropped to their second lowest level in nearly two decades, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Thirty year fixed rates averaged 4.96 percent and fifteen year rated dropped to just 4.5 percent.
Why's this important? New financing applications to buy homes obviously point to rising purchase contracts and closed sales in the months ahead. They also suggest that prices have hit a level in many markets that is attracting once-hesitant buyers off the sidelines.
There's still another factor that's likely at work here as well: Congress's recent improvements to the home purchase tax credit -- pushing it to $8,000 from $7,500 and making it non-repayable. George Ratiu, research economist for the National Association of Realtors, says the big jump in loan applications could be tied to the improved credit in the stimulus package signed into law last month.
"Consumers may be responding to the stimulation" effect of the better credit for 2009, he said.
But let's be clear here: A rise in home purchase applications does NOT suggest we've turned the corner in the cycle or have solved the multiple challenges facing markets around the country -- high foreclosure levels, continuing domination in some areas of REO and short sales, and continuing increases in the unemployment rate.
Even amid these problems, however, there are some hints of possible improvements ahead. For example, a new study by research firm Realty Trac and USA Today found that despite the constant headlines about record levels of foreclosures, the more closely you look, the more you find that those numbers are highly concentrated in a relatively small number of counties.
More than half of the nation's foreclosures in 2008, researchers found, were concentrated in just 35 counties in 12 states. You can guess where: California, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Florida.
But the really eye-opening finding: In more than 650 other counties, representing one fifth of all markets in the U.S., foreclosure numbers have actually declined since 2006.
Foreclosures are horrible no matter where they occur. But the fact is: Huge portions of the United States have NOT been seeing record foreclosures, short sales or even serious property value declines. They're doing better.
Published: March 17, 2009
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Saturday, March 7, 2009
February Real Estate Sales Stats
Property listings decrease, as February sales improve.
VANCOUVER, B.C. – March 3, 2008 – Residential housing sales in Greater Vancouver rose 94 per cent in February compared to the month before, with 1,480 sales registered in February compared to 762 sales in January, which was the slowest month for housing sales in 25 years. Over the past 10 years, February sales have typically surpassed January by an average increase of 53 per cent.
At the same time, new MLS® listings for residential properties continued to decrease for the fourth month in a row. New listings decreased 25.6 per cent in February compared to the previous year; 20 per cent in January; 8.6 per cent in December; and 10 per cent in November.
“There are terrific opportunities out there right now, but with property listings continuing to decrease, those opportunities may be available only for a brief window of time,” said Dave Watt, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).
REBGV reports that year-over-year property sales in Greater Vancouver declined 44.7 per cent in February 2009 from the 2,676 sales recorded in February 2008. Year-over-year, those are the lowest sales figures for February since the mid-1980s.
“REALTORS® are reporting more activity compared to recent months as people begin to see whether their position in the housing market has strengthened as a result of falling interest rates and improved affordability,” Watt says. “It took, on average, 67 days to sell a home in Greater Vancouver in February, seven days less than last month, but behind the seller’s market of last February when the average stood at 33 days.
Sales of detached properties in February 2009 declined 41 per cent to 587 from the 995 units sold during the same period in 2008. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties declined 14.2 per cent from February 2008 to $653,452.
Sales of apartment properties declined 45.6 per cent last month to 650, compared to the 1,197 sales in February 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 13.9 per cent from February 2008 to $333,143.
Attached property sales in February 2009 decreased 49.8 per cent to 243, compared with the 484 sales during the same month in 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit declined 9.7 per cent between Februarys 2008 and 2009 to $426,268.
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 25.6 per cent to 3,916 in February 2009 compared to February 2008, when 5,260 new units were listed.
VANCOUVER, B.C. – March 3, 2008 – Residential housing sales in Greater Vancouver rose 94 per cent in February compared to the month before, with 1,480 sales registered in February compared to 762 sales in January, which was the slowest month for housing sales in 25 years. Over the past 10 years, February sales have typically surpassed January by an average increase of 53 per cent.
At the same time, new MLS® listings for residential properties continued to decrease for the fourth month in a row. New listings decreased 25.6 per cent in February compared to the previous year; 20 per cent in January; 8.6 per cent in December; and 10 per cent in November.
“There are terrific opportunities out there right now, but with property listings continuing to decrease, those opportunities may be available only for a brief window of time,” said Dave Watt, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).
REBGV reports that year-over-year property sales in Greater Vancouver declined 44.7 per cent in February 2009 from the 2,676 sales recorded in February 2008. Year-over-year, those are the lowest sales figures for February since the mid-1980s.
“REALTORS® are reporting more activity compared to recent months as people begin to see whether their position in the housing market has strengthened as a result of falling interest rates and improved affordability,” Watt says. “It took, on average, 67 days to sell a home in Greater Vancouver in February, seven days less than last month, but behind the seller’s market of last February when the average stood at 33 days.
Sales of detached properties in February 2009 declined 41 per cent to 587 from the 995 units sold during the same period in 2008. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties declined 14.2 per cent from February 2008 to $653,452.
Sales of apartment properties declined 45.6 per cent last month to 650, compared to the 1,197 sales in February 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 13.9 per cent from February 2008 to $333,143.
Attached property sales in February 2009 decreased 49.8 per cent to 243, compared with the 484 sales during the same month in 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit declined 9.7 per cent between Februarys 2008 and 2009 to $426,268.
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 25.6 per cent to 3,916 in February 2009 compared to February 2008, when 5,260 new units were listed.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
January News Release
Home listings withdraw as sales volume slows
VANCOUVER, B.C. – February 3, 2009 – The first month of 2009 saw a continued reduction in the number of homes listed for sale in Greater Vancouver, while sales volumes in January were the lowest for that month since the early 1980s.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that sales of detached, attached and apartment properties declined 58.1 per cent in January 2009 to 762 from the 1,819 sales recorded in January 2008.
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 20.9 per cent to 3,700 in January 2009 compared to January 2008, when 4,675 new units were listed. Total active listings in Greater Vancouver currently sit at 13,966, down nearly 6,000 listings from October 2008.
Overall residential benchmark prices, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, declined 10.9 per cent to $489,007 between Januarys 2008 and 2009.
“Home sales and consumer confidence are at a low point at the moment, but the long-term strength and security of our housing market are beyond the reach of the economic clouds of today,” Dave Watt, REBGV president said.
“Today’s short-term conditions are creating long-term opportunities. Buying opportunities have not been this strong in a decade, with low interest rates, broad selection and more affordable prices,” Watt said.
Sales of detached properties declined 54.4 per cent to 292 from the 641 detached sales recorded during the same period in 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties declined 11.2 per cent to $659,638 in January 2009 compared to $742,490 January 2008.
Sales of apartment properties in January 2009 declined 58 per cent to 361, compared to 860 sales in January 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 11.6 per cent to $334,602 compared to $378,336 in January 2008.
Attached property sales in January 2009 were down 65.7 per cent to 109, compared with the 318 sales in January 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit declined 8.1 per cent to $425,309 compared to $462,627 in January 2008.
VANCOUVER, B.C. – February 3, 2009 – The first month of 2009 saw a continued reduction in the number of homes listed for sale in Greater Vancouver, while sales volumes in January were the lowest for that month since the early 1980s.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that sales of detached, attached and apartment properties declined 58.1 per cent in January 2009 to 762 from the 1,819 sales recorded in January 2008.
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 20.9 per cent to 3,700 in January 2009 compared to January 2008, when 4,675 new units were listed. Total active listings in Greater Vancouver currently sit at 13,966, down nearly 6,000 listings from October 2008.
Overall residential benchmark prices, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, declined 10.9 per cent to $489,007 between Januarys 2008 and 2009.
“Home sales and consumer confidence are at a low point at the moment, but the long-term strength and security of our housing market are beyond the reach of the economic clouds of today,” Dave Watt, REBGV president said.
“Today’s short-term conditions are creating long-term opportunities. Buying opportunities have not been this strong in a decade, with low interest rates, broad selection and more affordable prices,” Watt said.
Sales of detached properties declined 54.4 per cent to 292 from the 641 detached sales recorded during the same period in 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties declined 11.2 per cent to $659,638 in January 2009 compared to $742,490 January 2008.
Sales of apartment properties in January 2009 declined 58 per cent to 361, compared to 860 sales in January 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 11.6 per cent to $334,602 compared to $378,336 in January 2008.
Attached property sales in January 2009 were down 65.7 per cent to 109, compared with the 318 sales in January 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit declined 8.1 per cent to $425,309 compared to $462,627 in January 2008.
Monday, January 5, 2009
NEW LISTINGS: The Ventana by Henderson!
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December 2008 Statistics
2008 brought improved housing affordability to Greater Vancouver
VANCOUVER, B.C. – January 5, 2009 – The record-breaking real estate market cycle in Greater Vancouver, longer than normal at seven consecutive years, ended in 2008 amidst global economic challenges. The change brought relief from rising prices that saw benchmark prices escalate from $357,770 for a single family detached home in December 2001 to $648,421 by December 2008.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that sales of detached, attached and apartment properties decreased 35.3 per cent in 2008 to 24,626 sales compared to 38,050 sales in 2007. Property listings for the year increased 13.9 per cent to 62,561 compared to 2007 when 54,945 new properties were listed.
“Trends in the latter half of 2008 showed a consistent month-over-month decrease in residential housing prices, adeparture from the rising home prices and record-breaking sales that were experienced in Greater Vancouver for much of this decade,” said REBGV president, Dave Watt.
“It’s also important to note that our December statistics show a third consecutive month of a decrease in active property listings in Greater Vancouver. That means supply is coming down,” Watt said. “Last month was also the first time in 27 years that Greater Vancouver homes sales for December were higher than November.”
Residential benchmark prices, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, declined 10.9 per cent between Decembers 2007 and 2008. Since May 2008, the overall residential benchmark price has declined 14.8 per cent in Greater Vancouver to $484,211 from $568,411.
“For buyers, lower prices haven’t been a concern as much as the perception that prices are falling. It’s difficult to identify the ‘bottom’ of the market. The reality is that people tend to buy when prices are going up, not when they’re going down,” Watt said.
In December 2008, sales of detached, attached and apartment properties totalled 924, a decrease of 51.3 per cent compared to the 1,897 sales in December 2007.
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 8.6 per cent to 1,550 in December 2008 compared to December 2007 when 1,695 new units were listed. Total listings in December declined 17.2 per cent to 15,193 from the 18,348 total active listings in Greater Vancouver in November 2008.
Sales of detached properties in December 2008 declined 48.7 per cent to 348 from the 679 units sold during the same period in 2007. The benchmark price for detached properties declined 11.2 per cent from $730,399 in December 2007 to $648,421 in December 2008. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 15.9 per cent.
Sales of apartment properties declined 53.7 per cent last month to 417 compared to 901 sales in December 2007. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 11.7 per cent from $377,579 in December 2007 to $333,275 in December 2008. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for an apartment property in Greater Vancouver has declined 14.5 per cent.
Attached property sales in December 2008 decreased 49.8 per cent to 159, compared with the 317 sales in December 2007. The benchmark price of an attached unit declined 7.4 per cent from $456,941 in December 2007 to $423,338 in December 2008. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for an attached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 11.6 per cent.
VANCOUVER, B.C. – January 5, 2009 – The record-breaking real estate market cycle in Greater Vancouver, longer than normal at seven consecutive years, ended in 2008 amidst global economic challenges. The change brought relief from rising prices that saw benchmark prices escalate from $357,770 for a single family detached home in December 2001 to $648,421 by December 2008.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that sales of detached, attached and apartment properties decreased 35.3 per cent in 2008 to 24,626 sales compared to 38,050 sales in 2007. Property listings for the year increased 13.9 per cent to 62,561 compared to 2007 when 54,945 new properties were listed.
“Trends in the latter half of 2008 showed a consistent month-over-month decrease in residential housing prices, adeparture from the rising home prices and record-breaking sales that were experienced in Greater Vancouver for much of this decade,” said REBGV president, Dave Watt.
“It’s also important to note that our December statistics show a third consecutive month of a decrease in active property listings in Greater Vancouver. That means supply is coming down,” Watt said. “Last month was also the first time in 27 years that Greater Vancouver homes sales for December were higher than November.”
Residential benchmark prices, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, declined 10.9 per cent between Decembers 2007 and 2008. Since May 2008, the overall residential benchmark price has declined 14.8 per cent in Greater Vancouver to $484,211 from $568,411.
“For buyers, lower prices haven’t been a concern as much as the perception that prices are falling. It’s difficult to identify the ‘bottom’ of the market. The reality is that people tend to buy when prices are going up, not when they’re going down,” Watt said.
In December 2008, sales of detached, attached and apartment properties totalled 924, a decrease of 51.3 per cent compared to the 1,897 sales in December 2007.
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 8.6 per cent to 1,550 in December 2008 compared to December 2007 when 1,695 new units were listed. Total listings in December declined 17.2 per cent to 15,193 from the 18,348 total active listings in Greater Vancouver in November 2008.
Sales of detached properties in December 2008 declined 48.7 per cent to 348 from the 679 units sold during the same period in 2007. The benchmark price for detached properties declined 11.2 per cent from $730,399 in December 2007 to $648,421 in December 2008. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 15.9 per cent.
Sales of apartment properties declined 53.7 per cent last month to 417 compared to 901 sales in December 2007. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 11.7 per cent from $377,579 in December 2007 to $333,275 in December 2008. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for an apartment property in Greater Vancouver has declined 14.5 per cent.
Attached property sales in December 2008 decreased 49.8 per cent to 159, compared with the 317 sales in December 2007. The benchmark price of an attached unit declined 7.4 per cent from $456,941 in December 2007 to $423,338 in December 2008. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for an attached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 11.6 per cent.
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