Real Estate Outlook: Where Housing is Headed
by Kenneth R. Harney
We received an important indicator of where housing is headed last week, when new mortgage applications for home purchases and refinances suddenly surged as they hadn't in months.
Applications for FHA loans to buy houses were up by 10.4 percent. And overall home purchase applications jumped by 7.1 percent.
Meanwhile mortgage interest rates dropped to their second lowest level in nearly two decades, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Thirty year fixed rates averaged 4.96 percent and fifteen year rated dropped to just 4.5 percent.
Why's this important? New financing applications to buy homes obviously point to rising purchase contracts and closed sales in the months ahead. They also suggest that prices have hit a level in many markets that is attracting once-hesitant buyers off the sidelines.
There's still another factor that's likely at work here as well: Congress's recent improvements to the home purchase tax credit -- pushing it to $8,000 from $7,500 and making it non-repayable. George Ratiu, research economist for the National Association of Realtors, says the big jump in loan applications could be tied to the improved credit in the stimulus package signed into law last month.
"Consumers may be responding to the stimulation" effect of the better credit for 2009, he said.
But let's be clear here: A rise in home purchase applications does NOT suggest we've turned the corner in the cycle or have solved the multiple challenges facing markets around the country -- high foreclosure levels, continuing domination in some areas of REO and short sales, and continuing increases in the unemployment rate.
Even amid these problems, however, there are some hints of possible improvements ahead. For example, a new study by research firm Realty Trac and USA Today found that despite the constant headlines about record levels of foreclosures, the more closely you look, the more you find that those numbers are highly concentrated in a relatively small number of counties.
More than half of the nation's foreclosures in 2008, researchers found, were concentrated in just 35 counties in 12 states. You can guess where: California, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Florida.
But the really eye-opening finding: In more than 650 other counties, representing one fifth of all markets in the U.S., foreclosure numbers have actually declined since 2006.
Foreclosures are horrible no matter where they occur. But the fact is: Huge portions of the United States have NOT been seeing record foreclosures, short sales or even serious property value declines. They're doing better.
Published: March 17, 2009
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Saturday, March 7, 2009
February Real Estate Sales Stats
Property listings decrease, as February sales improve.
VANCOUVER, B.C. – March 3, 2008 – Residential housing sales in Greater Vancouver rose 94 per cent in February compared to the month before, with 1,480 sales registered in February compared to 762 sales in January, which was the slowest month for housing sales in 25 years. Over the past 10 years, February sales have typically surpassed January by an average increase of 53 per cent.
At the same time, new MLS® listings for residential properties continued to decrease for the fourth month in a row. New listings decreased 25.6 per cent in February compared to the previous year; 20 per cent in January; 8.6 per cent in December; and 10 per cent in November.
“There are terrific opportunities out there right now, but with property listings continuing to decrease, those opportunities may be available only for a brief window of time,” said Dave Watt, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).
REBGV reports that year-over-year property sales in Greater Vancouver declined 44.7 per cent in February 2009 from the 2,676 sales recorded in February 2008. Year-over-year, those are the lowest sales figures for February since the mid-1980s.
“REALTORS® are reporting more activity compared to recent months as people begin to see whether their position in the housing market has strengthened as a result of falling interest rates and improved affordability,” Watt says. “It took, on average, 67 days to sell a home in Greater Vancouver in February, seven days less than last month, but behind the seller’s market of last February when the average stood at 33 days.
Sales of detached properties in February 2009 declined 41 per cent to 587 from the 995 units sold during the same period in 2008. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties declined 14.2 per cent from February 2008 to $653,452.
Sales of apartment properties declined 45.6 per cent last month to 650, compared to the 1,197 sales in February 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 13.9 per cent from February 2008 to $333,143.
Attached property sales in February 2009 decreased 49.8 per cent to 243, compared with the 484 sales during the same month in 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit declined 9.7 per cent between Februarys 2008 and 2009 to $426,268.
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 25.6 per cent to 3,916 in February 2009 compared to February 2008, when 5,260 new units were listed.
VANCOUVER, B.C. – March 3, 2008 – Residential housing sales in Greater Vancouver rose 94 per cent in February compared to the month before, with 1,480 sales registered in February compared to 762 sales in January, which was the slowest month for housing sales in 25 years. Over the past 10 years, February sales have typically surpassed January by an average increase of 53 per cent.
At the same time, new MLS® listings for residential properties continued to decrease for the fourth month in a row. New listings decreased 25.6 per cent in February compared to the previous year; 20 per cent in January; 8.6 per cent in December; and 10 per cent in November.
“There are terrific opportunities out there right now, but with property listings continuing to decrease, those opportunities may be available only for a brief window of time,” said Dave Watt, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).
REBGV reports that year-over-year property sales in Greater Vancouver declined 44.7 per cent in February 2009 from the 2,676 sales recorded in February 2008. Year-over-year, those are the lowest sales figures for February since the mid-1980s.
“REALTORS® are reporting more activity compared to recent months as people begin to see whether their position in the housing market has strengthened as a result of falling interest rates and improved affordability,” Watt says. “It took, on average, 67 days to sell a home in Greater Vancouver in February, seven days less than last month, but behind the seller’s market of last February when the average stood at 33 days.
Sales of detached properties in February 2009 declined 41 per cent to 587 from the 995 units sold during the same period in 2008. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties declined 14.2 per cent from February 2008 to $653,452.
Sales of apartment properties declined 45.6 per cent last month to 650, compared to the 1,197 sales in February 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property declined 13.9 per cent from February 2008 to $333,143.
Attached property sales in February 2009 decreased 49.8 per cent to 243, compared with the 484 sales during the same month in 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit declined 9.7 per cent between Februarys 2008 and 2009 to $426,268.
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 25.6 per cent to 3,916 in February 2009 compared to February 2008, when 5,260 new units were listed.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
